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"More likely than not" logically means with a probability greater than 50%. A probability of 50% would be "as likely as not". But the user of the phrase is not making a mathematically precise estimate...
May 11, 2026
"More likely than not" logically means with a probability greater than 50%. A probability of 50% would be "as likely as not". But the user of the phrase is not making a mathematically precise estimate of probability.
Understanding the Context
They are expressing what they think is likely in an intentionally vague way, and it's misplaced precision to try to assign a number to it. As an opposite, one could simply say ... "More likely than not" - (1) How likely is it for you in percentage ...